ASPO

THIRD INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON

OIL AND GAS DEPLETION


Berlin, Germany, 25-26 May, 2004


By C.J.Campbell


It was here in Germany that ASPO had its origin. On December 7th in the year 2000, I was privileged to give a talk on oil depletion at the ancient university of Clausthal in the Harz Mountains. The idea of forming an institution, or network of scientists concerned about the subject, developed. Next day, I took the idea to Professor Wellmer, the head of the BGR in Hannover, who gave it his support. The Norwegians were the next to join, followed by the Swedes. Today, ASPO is represented in almost all European countries – at least before its recent enlargement.

The next step forward came when Professor Aleklett organised the first International Workshop on Oil Depletion in Uppsala in May of 2002, to be followed in turn by another, hosted by the Institute Français du Pétrole last year in Paris.

ASPO is an informal network working with a very small budget, yet its voice is being heard, thanks in part to the Uppsala website. Perhaps its informal structure is its strength. It means that it can tell the truth freed of all the political, legalistic and commercial constraints that most organisations face. By all means, the subject of depletion is a sensitive one, being perhaps the most important single issue facing the modern world.

It is very difficult for people and, still less, governments to accept that we live at a critical moment in history. Oil has fuelled the economy for the past 150 years allowing the world’s population to rise six-fold. Now, we enter the second half of the Oil Age, facing the decline of this critical energy supply. The very fabric of society will have to change. Oil fuels transport, on which trade, commerce and manufacturing depend. It has a critical role in agriculture, which means food. Far-reaching changes for almost all aspects of life are called for. The tensions of the transition will be great.

Different factions view the subject with different backgrounds, mind-sets, vested interests and objectives. The Surveyor defines, describes and measures the resource in Nature. The Economist relies on out-dated principles inherited from the Industrial Revolution to claim that there can be no shortage in an Open Market. The Pretenders know full well what the situation is but pretend otherwise for short-term political reasons. These and other divergent positions are possible because of the grossly unreliable nature of public data. With valid information, the essence of depletion would be self-evident.

This workshop brings together people from many countries to hear lectures by leading authorities, and above all to meet informally to discuss their different understandings and viewpoints. Their conclusions will form a new consensus. Soaring oil prices and the threat of resource wars bring a new urgency to the matter. The World’s media are following the issue with growing attention, and are doing their best to alert governments and the people at large to their predicaments.

 
Program
 
Tuesday 25 May, 2004

08.00 Welcome reception

Natural Gas Chair: C. Campbell

09.00 Welcome - What happened since “Paris”
Kjell ALEKLETT [ASPO]

09.15 Future energy - What can the BGR contribute?
Friedrich-Wilhelm WELLMER [BGR]

09.30 Supply and demand of the US market
Matthew R. SIMMONS [Simmons & Company Int.]

10.15 Demand and gas supply in Europe
Christian BECKERVORDERSANDFORTH [Ruhrgas]

11.00Coffee

11.30 Supply from Groningen and the small fields in the Netherlands:
How has it worked out and what is ahead?
Jaap BREUNESE [TNO]

12.15 LNG, regional gas markets vs. Gas-OPEC
François CAHAGNE [Gaz de France]

13.00 Lunch


Natural Gas Chair: P. R. Bauquis

14.00 The future of natural gas supply
Jean LAHERRERE [ASPO]

14.30 Future Gas Potential: Where? What? How much?
J. Peter GERLING [BGR]

15.00 Coffee


Oil Chair: P. R. Bauquis

15.30 Oil reserves growth potential
Francis G. HARPER [BP]

16.15 Long-term energy outlook - An ExxonMobil analysis
Jeffrey A. JOHNSON [ExxonMobil]

17.00 A dynamic approach of oil production
Olivier RECH [IFP]


 
Wednesday, May 26

Energy and Society Chair: C. v. Hirschhausen

09.00 Energy scenarios for Europe
Harry LEHMANN [ISUSI]

09.45 The European energy policy - Reality or fiction?
Rolf LINKOHR [MEP]

10.30 Coffee

11.00 Panel discussion: How to cope with the future energy constraints - A European perspective
Moderator: Fritz VAHRENHOLT [REpower]

Participants:Ali Samsam BAKHTIARI[NIOC]
Fatih BIROL[IEA]
Colin CAMPBELL[ASPO]
Hans-Josef FELL[MdB]
Hans-Wilhelm SCHIFFER[RWE Power]
Hartmut SCHNEIDER[BMWA]

12.30Lunch


Renewables/Hydrogen
What can we expect? Chair: W. Zittel

13.30 Economic growth and interest system
Bernd SENF [FHW Berlin]

14.15 Synfuel - Their role in the transport sector
Frank SEYFRIED [VW]

15.00 Coffee

15.30 Alternative fuels in Europe and Germany - Which contribution is possible?
Martin KALTSCHMITT [Inst. f. Energetik & Umwelt]

16.15 Hydrogen - Activities in the US, Japan and Europe
Jörg SCHINDLER [LBSt]

17.00 Wrap up
Michael KOSINOWSKI [NLfB]

Farewell
Kjell ALEKLETT [ASPO]
 

Leserbrief